273 
AXPZ20 KNHC 220249
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10N80W TO 
10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N116W TO LOW NEAR 11N130W TO 07N134W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W TO 
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 
32N134W TO NEAR 20N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
115W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL 
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS 
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 113W-140W 
BEGINNING FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS 
BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT...THEN SUBSIDING TO LESS THEN 12 FT ON FRI.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 
10N130W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED 
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL 
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE 
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8 
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.  
 
$$
NR/JA